We Live in a Strange World – IV

Dr. Sergei Smirnov, expert of Center for maritime transport and spatial logistics

Two and a half years have passed since my previous comment appeared under this rather hyped title. To be honest, the author started writing new material several times, but each time something stopped him. Oddities in the outside world did not disappear, but it was impossible to understand and comprehend what exactly was happening and where it would all lead.

Then came December 3, 2024, and with it – an attempted coup d’etat in South Korea. A dramatic event, quite comparable in terms of unpredictability and danger to the failed attempt to oust the President of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991 or the 9/11 al-Qaeda terrorist attack on the United States. Fortunately, the political institutions of the Republic of Korea were up to the task, and its citizens still remember the times of military dictatorship quite well. The coup failed, and its hapless initiator, President (!) Yun Seok-gyul, will most likely join the ranks of many of his predecessors moving from the Blue Palace to prison.

However, it seems that the unsuccessful coup in Seoul was not a farce or the result of an emotional breakdown of Mr. President, who was “driven to it” by constant attacks from the opposition. The key to understanding what happened may lie in the outcome of the US presidential elections which took place less than a month before. 

The role of the Asia-Pacific region in the world: more action, less talk

Our journal as its name directly implies is limited to the agenda of the Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, in the classical understanding of its geographical boundaries. Personally, I have reason to believe that the term Indo-Pacific region, which is being vigorously imposed today by American political scientists and which appeared to justify the Pentagon budget cuts, is nothing more than a demonstration of Euro-Atlantic chauvinism. Simply put, there is a certain Great West, a Euro-Atlantic alliance of democracies led by the USA. Which has the right to set standards of behavior, consumption and even speech for the rest of the world. At the same time, it is ignored that the Rest of the World today is not so much a supplier of resources as a manufacturer of all kinds of goods imported by the once industrially developed West.

This is especially true for the Asia-Pacific region. It is enough to compare the percentage of loaded and empty containers on the route from East Asia to North America / Europe and back. It would also be indicative to compare what kind of goods move “there” and “back”. I am sure that many readers will be very surprised. At the same time, even the most pro-Western nations in the Asia-Pacific are informally considered second-rate in Washington compared to the EU countries. Tokyo and Seoul cannot help but feel this attitude towards themselves.

However, let us stop this excursion into political economy. My thesis is as follows. The leading role of the USA in the contemporary world (and it does exist, no matter how hard they try to prove the opposite!) was based on economic, scientific, technical, military and moral superiority. We observe the continuing erosion of leadership in all these areas, although these processes are going at different speeds. 

Everything has long been clear with US domestic industry. The military power of the United States today is far from being what it is portrayed to be. I do not mean the failure of the mission in Afghanistan – it was simply impossible to win there. Rather, the inglorious outcome of the recent “epic battle” with the Yemeni Houthis is a good example of its decline. The scientific and technical capacity of the USA looks relatively better, but let us not forget that successes in this area are achieved mainly due to the constant enticement of the best foreign brains. (Even Elon Mask? Hmm…)

As for moral leadership, things have been getting worse and worse recently. 

Choosing between two evils: DEI vs DOGE

The pendulum of aggressive liberalism in the United States has been rising higher and higher in recent years. Eurocrats have been diligently copying their overseas elder brothers, and in some ways have even surpassed them. Positive discrimination, cancel culture, tolerance and other products of pseudo-liberal creative imagination, collectively referred to as DEI policy, could not help but affect the economy and other areas of life. The bubble was supposed to burst, and the pendulum should swing in the other direction. This is exactly the process we are currently witnessing in Washington D.C. 

As is often the case, the baby is thrown out with the bathwater. The transition of power in the United States has always been a creaking affair, political appointees to the highest government posts, selected on the principle of personal loyalty, spend many months trying to understand what they should lead and how exactly. The political season – 2025 has exceeded all expectations. The purge of federal employees, initiated by the restless Elon Musk on behalf of the new DOGE agency, is reminiscent of the era of Senator McCarthy’s “Witch Hunt” in its tactics, and may significantly exceed it in terms of the scale of the expected damage.

You may logically say – what does this have to do with the problems of the Asia-Pacific region? Let the Americans create their own problems, and then fight them themselves.

Alas, it will not work.

The habit of looking back at Uncle Sam in everything, copying his behavior, and being afraid of somehow causing his displeasure is too strong.

Although the king has long been naked, and in fact, the only effective tool in his hands is a control over a significant part of the global financial system.

Therefore, in my opinion, the unfortunate RoK President Yun Seok-gyul was looking up to his overseas colleague, introducing a state of emergency at home. Four years ago, Donald Trump, having lost the election (quite deservedly, according to his “achievements”), called on his supporters to take unconstitutional protest measures. He himself prudently stayed away. Instead of a prison cell, he ended up triumphantly moving into the White House and began to crack down on his political opponents, as well as prosecutors, judges, journalists, military leaders, etc. Quod licet Iovi, non licet bovi.

Forecasts, alternatives

Since our world will definitely not become any less strange in the coming years and at times simply scary, making forecasts is a thankless task. I will try anyway.

The American political system is complicated, bureaucratic, and wasteful; there is no arguing with that. However, managing this system is a much more challenging job than ruling even the largest business corporation. The arrival of a new top manager who, instead of fine-tuning its internal business processes, begins a cavalry attack with drawn swords, will lead to the disorganization of its functioning, possibly to the paralysis of individual agencies and structures. Nevertheless,

the federal bureaucratic machine will ultimately prevail.

President Trump needs quick victories to demonstrate to his specific electorate and foreign vassals. However, such victories are not very visible, especially in domestic affairs. This means that we should expect even more pressure on the outside world. Mr. Trump considers himself a great negotiator, skillfully combining threats, bluff, cajolery and so on down the list. High-level political negotiations, let us say cautiously, are somewhat different from a deal between real estate developers.

For now, the attention of the US administration focuses primarily on Pax Americana and European affairs, including cute pranks like renaming the Gulf of Mexico, annexing Canada, and buying Greenland. When the Europeans finally realize that Washington maybe is not joking and can really abandon its security obligations, they cannot help but ask themselves – what do we actually have from the US? 

There is no need to create from scratch a NATO alternative. Europeans have the prolonged WEU experience and the EU’s successful conduct of large-scale naval operations under its auspices.

Once again, come back to our regional situation. 

China, of course, is a separate and highly complex topic. 

Washington has not yet seriously addressed the problems of relations with its partners in the Asia-Pacific. Anyway, they will definitely get around to it soon, especially if the Europeans start showing their teeth. I have already noted above the somewhat discriminative attitude of the US political leadership towards Asian allies. At the same time, there was a certain political tradition. Democratic administrations (Obama, Biden) tried to engage regional partners in the system of military-political-economic alliances such as TPP, AUKUS, QUAD, etc. The Republicans behaved more simply and harshly – pay up, or participate in our military adventures.

We can assume with a fair degree of certainty that

the first thing that Trump’s team will demand from Japan and the Republic of Korea will be to increase their military budget spending, particularly covering the costs for US bases and forward deployed troops.

“If you don’t pay, we’ll leave you, and then deal with the Chinese and North Korean threats yourselves.” Such blackmail worked previously, albeit not to the full extent.
The second point of pressure will probably be the demand

to unconditionally support the actions and sanctions of the US trade war against China.

By the way, it is not known which of these two options is worse.

We should not forget about Australia and New Zealand as well. The former traditionally supported Washington’s foreign policy course and until recently actively participated in attempts to build security alliances in the Asia-Pacific. New Zealand took an independent stance in security issues back in the last century. Who, in fact, could have come up with the idea of ​​attacking their islands located at the most remote corner of the globe? 

Anyway, these nations are the key members of the British Commonwealth and should think hard after the story of Trump’s attack on Canada. 

In conclusion

It is probably inappropriate to seriously talk about moral leadership of the United States today. If President Trump does risk “ditching” NATO allies, close relatives as one might say, then he will certainly not going to defend Japan and South Korea. Tokyo and Seoul face a difficult choice ahead and need to prepare for such a hypothetical scenario right now.

One of the alternatives seems to be the speedy creation of national nuclear weaponry.

Sure, this is a highly risky and unfavorable option, but what else do they maintain?

The final remark.  Asia-Pacific gave a clear example of how to deal with Mr. Trump. Remember the extremely heated rhetoric between the United States and the DPRK at the beginning of Trump’s first presidential term? It seemed that there was a smell of nuclear war in the air. However, the younger DPRK leader Kim Jong-un did not succumb to bluff and threats, and the great negotiator Trump urgently changed tactics from anger to mercy. Personal meetings followed, confidential conversations between the two leaders, and documents to resolve the long-standing conflict on the Korean Peninsula were being developed. When, cynically speaking, “the client was ripe“, US delegation put on the table for signing something completely different, not the document agreed upon at the working level. Kim Jong-un simply got up and left, without even slamming the door. That was it. Nothing terrible happened afterwards.

Let us see how events develop further. We will watch with great interest – after all, this world is so strange!