GLOBAL SHIPPING IN 2025: TRENDS AND CHALLENGES OF TRANSFORMATION

Anastasia O. Barannikova 

Admiral Nevelskoy Maritime State University, Vladivostok

Anna K. Voronenko 

Admiral Nevelskoy Maritime State University, Vladivostok

Sergei M. Smirnov

Admiral Nevelskoy Maritime State University, Vladivostok

Abstract: The maritime shipping industry is currently on the threshold of a fundamental transformation driven by the rise of several key trends: decarbonization, digitalization, automation. However, this transformation is not an easy process. Progress in decarbonization will be directly dependent on maintaining the commercial viability of the shipping business, which is no easy feat amid growing threats to global supply chains. Converting fleets to environmentally friendly and energy-efficient fuels is the optimal way to achieve environmental goals while maintaining acceptable operating costs. Ammonia is the leader among alternative fuels, while LNG is losing ground in the new order book. Nuclear energy has received a new opportunity for development, with Russia the only maritime power to retain expertise in the construction and long-term, accident-free operation of civilian nuclear-powered vessels. In the area of ​​digitalization, the leading trend is the implementation of end-to-end digital solutions based on 5G networks and artificial intelligence, ensuring the optimization of maritime logistics in real time. The practical implementation of intelligent cargo planning, smart automated mooring and autonomous navigation technologies has started. China and South Korea are leading the way in the ‘digital’ field. Overall, the transformation of the shipping industry today is not a matter of mechanically implementing a set of isolated technological breakthroughs, but rather the industry’s ability to create synergies between them.

Keywords: transformation of maritime shipping, decarbonization, alternative fuels, wind power, marine nuclear energy, digitalization, autonomous navigation, intelligent cargo planning

The maritime shipping industry is considered one of the most conservative sectors of the global economy. However, the key trends driving significant changes, namely decarbonization, digitalization of operational processes, automation and robotics, are increasingly influencing the industry. The process of transformation has started, but it is proceeding with significant difficulties.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the global trend of decarbonization was driving changes in shipping. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set a framework for net-zero emissions, targeting 2050. However, these directives are confronting political and economic realities. Experts believe that promoting decarbonization through global carbon pricing or stricter energy efficiency standards (CII) has become politicized. Regulatory uncertainty is increasing amid diverging positions on the application of differentiated responsibilities among OECD countries. Ultimately, progress in decarbonization will directly depend on maintaining the commercial viability of the shipping industry. Increased turbulence in international relations poses serious threats to global supply chains. The shipping industry, the main driver of international trade, is suffering damage and is forced to adapt to new realities.

Since even the largest shipping corporations cannot directly influence high-level policy, the industry is seeking internal savings amid global uncertainty. Major companies selectively apply new technological solutions, taking into account cost-effectiveness criteria. They declare adherence to decarbonization narrative, but not always follow it. In particular, authoritative industry analysts have noted a “reward gap” for responsible shipowners. Financial institutions and charterers do not always consider ships’ environmental ratings when concluding transactions, reducing economic incentives for investment in green technologies.

Based on an analysis of industry statistics for 2025, the portfolio of new orders in civil shipbuilding, and publications in the global media, the authors attempt to provide a critical assessment of trends in innovative technologies being implemented in global merchant shipping.

Converting ships to environmentally friendly and energy-efficient fuels is currently likely the optimal way to achieve environmental goals while maintaining acceptable operating costs. Fuel is considered the most expensive item in a fleet’s budget, accounting for 40-67% of the total cost of shipping, according to various estimates. [1]

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) marketed as a transition fuel, has increasingly come under fire in the past year: methane leaks throughout the fuel’s life cycle can negate its advantages over traditional fuels, calling into question its long-term environmental sustainability. In the short term, switching to cleaner-burning traditional fuels, such as biodiesel, appears more cost-effective, as their use does not require radical changes to the design of a ship’s propulsion system. 

In 2025, there was a rise in demand for alternative fuel solutions (methanol, ammonia, hydrogen) and renewable technologies (wind, solar), as well as a revival of interest in peaceful nuclear energy.

Ammonia, particularly “green” ammonia, has emerged as the market leader for vessels powered by alternative fuels. Major bunkering clusters in the Asia-Pacific region already offer green ammonia bunkering services [2], although vessels with propulsion systems capable of running on this fuel are still very few. Hydrogen fuel is in the transition phase from experimental to commercial applications, so hydrogen projects are virtually nonexistent in the order books of shipbuilding corporations – shipping companies prefer not to take risks. Methanol is positioned as an intermediate option, more carbon-neutral than biodiesel, LNG, or LPG, but inferior to ammonia and hydrogen.

Shifting a portion of a vessel’s energy consumption to wind propulsion systems is considered as one of the most pragmatic and, in the near term, most affordable measures for reducing fuel consumption and emissions. [3] Wind energy recovery systems can also be installed on vessels in operation, providing fuel savings of up to 10-15%.

Shipping industry known for its conservatism introduce electric propulsion very cautiously, primarily in the small harbor and coastal shipping sector. [4]

The use of nuclear energy in civilian shipping deserves special consideration, as interest in this field has surged in the past year.

While nuclear power plants have firmly established their exclusive niche in the navies of leading powers, proving their impressive capabilities and successfully overcoming inevitable “teething problems,” the global shipping industry ignored this technology for over half a century, considering it too unreliable and dangerous, Three nuclear-powered dry cargo ships were built and operated abroad in the 1960s and 1970s: Savannah (USA), Otto Hahn (West Germany), and Mutsu (Japan). All were commercially unviable and politicized projects.

The USSR was the only country to retain civilian nuclear shipbuilding. However, its first nuclear-powered merchant vessel, the ice-class lighter carrier Sevmorput, was built at an unfortunate Perestroika period and only narrowly escaped decommissioning in 1990s. However, the industrial base, expertise, and technology were preserved. The next domestic project, the floating nuclear power plant Academician Lomonosov, although not fully considered part of the shipping industry, confirmed the correctness of the course for constructing large vessels with “classic” nuclear power plants (pressurized water reactors).

Today, as the shipping industry strives to steadily move toward zero emissions, it is becoming clear internationally that nuclear-powered vessels are a near-perfect fit for this goal. While their construction costs are certainly higher than those of conventional vessels, nuclear ships are comparable to their counterparts powered by hydrogen or ammonia, while operating costs for the former will be significantly lower.

Today, the industry as a whole and its leading actors face two key challenges: how to overcome the nuclear phobia that has been ingrained in global public opinion for decades, and which nuclear power technologies to prioritize.

In the first case, the process has begun with the active IMO participation; regulations will likely be issued very soon allowing nuclear-powered vessels to enter ports without hindrance. [5, 6]

The second problem is more complex. Judging by numerous media publications, thorium-fueled molten salt reactors (TMSRs) have been heralded as a near-panacea for a bright, carbon-free future. True, such reactor systems should be structurally simpler, especially when used with supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO₂) generators operating on the Brayton cycle with an efficiency of 45-50% compared to a classic pressurized water reactor’s efficiency of approximately 33%. This reactors should also be theoretically safer and scalable, expanding its range of naval applications. 

However, TMSR technology is still in the experimental stage; when, if at all, it will enter the commercial market is a big question. Meanwhile, the technology for marine pressurized water reactors has been thoroughly refined, and the many years of trouble-free operation of Russian nuclear icebreakers and a floating nuclear power plant in the harsh Arctic environment attest to its highest reliability. 

Digitalization is another driver of sectoral transformation. The implementation of end-to-end digital solutions, particularly those based on 5G networks, enables the optimization of maritime logistics in real time. Technologies such as intelligent cargo planning, smart mooring, and autonomous navigation are considered particularly close to practical implementation in the shipping industry.

The undisputed global leaders in this area are China and South Korea – countries with the largest commercial fleets, developed port and shipbuilding infrastructure, and recognized leaders in advanced technologies. 

China is trying to build a fully digital maritime infrastructure in which ships, ports, and logistics companies operate as a single digital ecosystem. PRC has constructedt 52 automated container terminals and created nearly 10,000 km of digital navigation charts for inland waterways. Last year, the country completed the first automated, unmanned mooring of a container ship. China is steadily catching up with European countries, which pioneered autonomous shipping technologies. As of the 2020s, 96% of the 3,000 patents for autonomous shipping technologies worldwide were registered by China. [7]

Republic of Korea is actively investing in the development of autonomous ships. According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, the government will invest 320 billion won (US$240 million) in 2026 to strengthen global competitiveness in shipbuilding using artificial intelligence and green technologies, an increase of 23% from last year. Funding for autonomous ships is planned to reach 37.8 billion won (US$28 million). In addition, the South Korean government is planning large-scale pilot projects involving more than 30 vessels [8]; car carriers equipped with autonomous navigation systems and intelligent systems for planning the placement of cars on cargo decks are already in operation. Research by AVIKUS, HD Hyundai startup developing autonomous navigation systems, has shown that the implementation of such systems will reduce fuel consumption by 15% and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 10%.[9] 

The accelerated development of AI technologies plays a significant role in the digitalization of maritime transport. This is most noticeable in segments where routine tasks predominate. AI applications in shipping are multifaceted: from predictive analysis of equipment condition and route optimization to minimization of fuel consumption to autonomous navigation. Algorithms are capable of processing vast amounts of data on weather, vessel condition, and market conditions, offering captains decisions that maximize economic and environmental efficiency. The concept of a “cognitive vessel” where humans and machines work in symbiosis, is emerging.

However, the implementation of AI raises questions about the reliability and controllability of algorithms. Who is responsible in the event of a system failure or erroneous recommendation? The development of a transparent and ethical framework for the use of AI is necessary to eliminate the risk of systemic errors and ensure trust in the technology.

It should be noted that fears of AI displacing human labor, including in the maritime industry, are largely exaggerated. Rather than completely replacing humans, AI is more likely to lead to a transformation of professions, where crews will increasingly perform supervisory and analytical functions that require new digital literacy competencies. This is especially true given that the potential for reducing shipping companies’ operating costs by reducing crews has been virtually exhausted. Industry experts also note the increasing psychological strain on ship officers, in particular due to the expansion of remote bureaucratic oversight of their work during voyages, the introduction of additional statutory requirements, and the increasing physical threats to vessels and crews due to rising tensions in key ocean waters.

As noted above, the digitalization of the industry endorses the implementation of automation on ships and in ports, a process that is proceeding steadily and consistently. However, there are some differences in approaches to fleet automation implementation across countries. In particular, active seafarers note that new Chinese vessel designs are sometimes overloaded with automated systems and mechanisms, which, like new generations of Chinese-made automobiles, are integrated with a central computer. This is a benefit in everyday operations, but a software failure or hacker attack can pose a serious threat to the operation of all ship systems. Japanese vessels, by contrast, maintain a certain degree of technological asceticism, emphasizing reliability and ensuring long-term trouble-free operation. New Korean vessel designs occupy a middle ground between these two extremes. Only time will likely tell which approach is preferable.

The use of robots on merchant vessels is currently minimal. Unlike port operations and shipbuilding, there are not many scenarios for using robotic systems onboard, including unmanned aerial vehicles and underwater vehicles.

In summary, the complexity of new technologies, the volatility of alternative fuel prices, the expansion of armed conflict zones along maritime shipping routes, and increasing regulatory pressure are creating an unprecedented level of systemic risk for the industry. The most frequently voiced solution is to conduct an industry “stress test.” This is a comprehensive modeling of crisis scenarios, similar to that used in the financial sector. This approach would identify vulnerabilities in supply chains, logistics hubs, and financial models before they manifest themselves in a real crisis.

We believe that transformation, however impressive it may seem, is not an end goal in itself, but rather the optimal tool for the development of maritime shipping, the backbone of the global supply chain system, in the first half of the XXI Century. Industry transformation today is not the mechanical implementation of a set of isolated technological breakthroughs, but the industry’s ability to create synergies between them. Shipowners are increasingly seeking comprehensive platforms that provide integrated management of safety, commercial, and environmental data, rather than unconnected IT products. This reduces operational complexity and enables informed strategic decision making in uncertain environments. Green initiatives require support from digital tools for verification and optimization, while risk management must evolve to address new threats. The consolidation of technology companies currently observed in this sector is one response to these challenges.

REFERENCES 

1. URL:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00036846.2024.2364106#abstract 
2. World’s First Green Ammonia Bunkering Operation Completed in Dalian, Aug. 6, 2025, URL: https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/world-first-green-ammonia-bunkering-408698 
3. K  LINE completes phase one development of Seawing automated kite system, Sept. 5, 2025, URL: https://www.ship-technology.com/news/k-line-completes-phase-one-development-seawing-automated-kite-system/?cf-view
4. Japan sets sail on clean energy with E-Crea, its first all-electric work vessel, May 2, 2025, URL: https://interestingengineering.com/transportation/japan-sets-sail-on-clean-energy-with-e-crea-its-first-all-electric-work-vessel 
5. URL: https://splash247.com/imo-fails-to-agree-net-zero-framework-pushes-talks-to-2026/
6. MIT Maritime Consortium Releases Nuclear Ship Safety Handbook, Oct. 23, 2025, URL: https://www.marinelink.com/news/mit-maritime-consortium-releases-nuclear-531491 
7. URL: https://thetius.com/china-will-be-a-leader-in-autonomous-shipping-by-2025/ 
8. URL: https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/02/24/shipbuilding-invest-ai-eco-friendly-ship/4221771977651/#:~:text=Investment%20in%20eco%2 Dfriendly%20ships,billion%20won%20(%2428%20million) 
9. URL: https://avikus.ai/en-us/press/hd-hyundais-avikus-recognized-for-innovation-at-ces-for-second-consecutive-year-1-0-0-1