ARCTIC PROJECTS AND PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIA’S COOPERATION WITH ASIAN COUNTRIES IN THE CONTEXT OF INFORMATION PRESSURE FROM THE GLOBAL WEST 

Peter Yu. Samoylenko 

Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok 

Russian Society of Political Scientists, Moscow 

Abstract: The article examines the main directions of the  use of Arctic issues (such as  Arctic trade and economic projects) in international and regional politics.  As well, there have been studied various aspects of influence of the Western information campaign against Russia on the coverage of Arctic issues. The author notes from potential partners, that: a) there is a high level of ideological influence on how they form their claims to play an active role in Arctic development b) existing “actors” use public relations (PR) techniques c) they utilize propaganda methods and actively participate in information conflicts. The article considers the information context of Arctic projects based on an interdisciplinary approach, including legal, economic, political, ethnic and other aspects. The principles of modern Arctic policy of countries adjacent to the polar regions and those who simply declare their claims to the Arctic are analyzed. These principles, in fact, are expressed in two strategic directions – the Arctic is considered as a priority area of responsibility for the Arctic countries   or  it is considered as global resource. It’s noteworthy that the most of various countries’ claims to the Arctic – political, economic or strategic – still remain  quite conditional and may have chances for implementation only in the future (when projected climatic changes and technical discoveries will allow to develop actively the Arctic natural resources). However, Russia already has the opportunity to step up cooperation in these areas with interested Asian countries such as China and India.

Keywords: Russian Far East, Asia-Pacific region, Arctic, Northern Sea Route, international safety, logistics, international image, transport corridors, shipping, propaganda

Background 

Arctic development issues became the part of  global political agenda in the first half of the 20th century, when due to technological progress the conditions for navigation and extraction of mineral natural resources in the northern polar seas appeared [4]. Gradually, all the countries adjacent to the coast of the Arctic Ocean realized the need of this region’s active exploration  despite its climatic features [19]. So in the middle of 20th century, Arctic issues (from politics and economics to ecology) have become a constant topic for global discussions [13]. As well, a significant impact on the growth of ambitions in the Arctic zone was caused by experience of navigation in polar seas and transcontinental polar air flights [4].  Here conflicted the interests of various interested countries, and soon the region began to turn into area of roots for potential confrontation.  

According to certain reasons, Arctic items acquired, especially during  20th century, the status of PR problems in international relations. In connection with this, there started to emerge the following peculiarities of regional situation.

– Definitions of territorial boundaries and jurisdiction in the Arctic zone have appeared in international law practice. 

All land, internal waters, territorial seas, and exclusive economic zones (EEZs) in the Arctic are under the jurisdiction of one of the Arctic coastal states: Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland, Norway, Russia and the United States. Russia actually keeps under her control Northern Sea Route, and Canada – so called Northwest Passage. The North Pole and the surrounding Arctic Ocean do not belong to any country. Waters and the seabed that are not confirmed as an extension of the continental shelf beyond exclusive economic zones are considered as the “heritage of all mankind.” Fishing in these waters and exploitation of mineral resources may be restricted only by international law.

– In 1996 the Arctic Council has been established consisting of countries adjacent to the Arctic [7] plus Sweden and Finland. These countries have the broadest powers to influence processes in the Arctic region [8];

– Arctic shipping got the impact to develop, with the construction of icebreakers, ships, and vessels with enhanced ice class;

– Thus, since the 1950s there began active discussions between interested countries [15] about participation in Arctic development and the prospects for this development  [14]. 

Modern situation

Today we can see regularly how the Arctic becomes  constant topic for  discussions in global policy, international relations and mass-media. According to the author. the main reasons for this situation are the following:

– Globalization. In the modern world, inter-regional economic ties are gradually deepen and expand. Due to global division of labor, logistical needs and population growth many countries continue to compete for additional natural resources, including resources in undeveloped and remote regions.

Therefore, the Arctic attracts attention even from countries located far from the Arctic Ocean. Examples include China, India, and others. We believe that in the coming years the interest of these and similar countries in the Arctic will undoubtedly be increasing.

– Weather forecasts: Changes in the global climate suggest that polar shipping will gain in near future the additional opportunities. In any case, according to research estimates, by 2040 the situation in the Arctic might change significantly because of global warming and thinning of ice cover. The Northern Sea Route becomes an international route between the Pacific and Atlantic ocean. To extract natural minerals from the Arctic Ocean shelf bottom will be easier and more simple. 

– Military-strategic aspects: In the era of nuclear missile weapons, access to the Arctic region has acquired military-strategic importance and the role of military-strategic factors in the Arctic will be growing. “Traditional” Arctic countries strengthen their military potential in the region, one of the obvious lines of confrontation is “Russia-NATO.” Thus, after Sweden and Finland joined NATO in 2022 it expanded potential threat for Russia who is to realize now the  measures of deterrence.

– Development of shipping The growth of global shipping also contributes to growing interest in the Arctic. Key factors in this process:

– Increase in the volume of hydrocarbon and container cargo being transported;

– Due to the global division of labor, the volume of transcontinental shipping is growing;

– Seaports, transport corridors, and major international hubs in the Asia-Pacific region are increasingly being used;

– The industrial production index and population rise, that creates a need to import large quantities of raw materials [10];

– Also significant are military and security-related threats for global merchant shipping;

– Emergencies in the Suez Canal.

Due to all this, shipowners and shippers consider alternate cargo shipping routes to traditional shipping ones across the Indian Ocean [6]. The Northern Sea Route is an obvious alternative in this case, and mass-media in many countries around the world writes a lot about it  [20].

-Balance in World politics New challenges arise daily in the modern world. Established ways of interaction between countries are constantly being modified to suit specific situations [11]. Geopolitical and economic rivalry makes adversary countries to fight for strategic advantages and natural resources. Because of this, the theory of “balances”, especially in key regions, is very popular in world politics. This trend is clearly observed in the Arctic and will remain a significant factor in world politics in near future. 

Further prospects for region’s development and its global significance

According to a 2007 assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (international, non-political, scientific organization within the United Nations), climate change in the Arctic could have a beneficial impact on the region’s prosperity and transform it into global transportation hub, similar to the Middle East and Suez Canal route in the 19th century.

The potential value of the Northern polar waters lies not so much in shipping itself, but in  profitable oil and natural gas deposits beneath the sea bottom.Based on this, we periodically witness escalating disputes between regional actors, involving legal, historical, and geographical arguments over the ownership of certain areas of continental bottom shelf.

On September 14, 2007, the European Space Agency reported that extreme ice melt had made the Northwest Passage (territory of Canada) navigable for the first time since records began in 1978. Therefore, oil exploration in this and other Arctic sectors may turn possible and profitable. As for  Northwest Passage itself, it is likely to become one of international and regular shipping routes [11].

The following trends related to the Arctic are reflected in public policy and the media

– Territorial Claims Back in 2008, at the Arctic Council ministerial meeting in Greenland, an agreement has been reached to resolve border issues in the region through negotiations. Under these circumstances, any political, economic, informational, or military pressure to change in the Arctic “status quo” could lead to violation of the “power balance”. Examples include US claims to Greenland in 2025 or their proposals to absorb Canada.

– Information warfare This strategy is based on inventing threats by distortion of facts about potential regional adversaries. For example, NATO countries are currently attempting to use this approach against Russia, telling publicly about the alleged Russian militarization in the Arctic zone.

– Environmental risks This topic is constantly observed in the media, although it is not actively exploited. However, it can be assumed that the importance of Arctic environmental factor in mass-media will gradually increase  in proportion with economic activity in this region.

– Militarization It is being implemented by adversaries through “deterrence strategies” and creating military balance in the region, for example, between NATO and Russia. To understand and estimate overall situation in the Arctic it’s important also to take into consideration  deployment of military contingents, especially by countries not adjacent to polar areas  [18].

Main problems in Arctic development

The key challenges facing the Arctic region and  discussed in the media can be summarized as follows:

– Risks associated with shipping Adverse weather conditions, strong winds, frequent storms, and mandatory pilotage remain significant factors for  navigation along the Northern Sea route.

– Difficulties for infrastructure creation and development High-tech ports and cargo hubs are needed to operate the Northern Sea Route, but their construction is associated with significant costs and increased risks of payback.

– Increased costs for securing enterprises’ economic activity caused, for example, by melting of the permafrost. Ground begins to sink, areas become waterlogged,  this damages the buildings and infrastructure, negatively affects the efficiency of industrial and social systems needed to support the Northern Sea Route. 

Environment Poor environmental protection and low self-purification capacity of Arctic ecosystems significantly limit shipping development in these latitudes. If something big happens (like a man-made disaster or accident), it could have serious consequences. That’s why it is important to increase safety measures and environment’s level protection while we are transporting and developing mineral resources. 

Obstacles for development of Arctic tourism: The deterioration of interstate relations and declining incomes of middle-class population hinder the development of Arctic tourism. General public interest in marine recreation in the polar regions is still not widespread.

The struggle for geopolitical influence in the region Climate warming opens up new opportunities for the expansion of military infrastructure and an arms race in the Arctic. Opposing countries, primarily those adjacent to polar areas strive to strengthen their geopolitical influence here;

Lack of a unified approach to determine the Arctic status International law and global politics involve differing approaches to determining the Arctic legal status. Opposing countries make contradictory demands, and this situation, from the point of view of international law, will only deepen.

All  above-mentioned problems are already being covered in mass-media right now.

Concepts of the Arctic problems media coverage 

As for media coverage of Arctic problems there are some distinctive principles and actions. [5].

We see that the Arctic projects often become the target of ideological and informational influence from the governments who have growing geopolitical interest in Arctic development [9].

Information materials about the Arctic are often created according to information warfare rules, that is, with the use of alarmist expressions, enemy images, forecasts about deterioration of situation, about global threats, etc. For example, since 2022, the EU has imposed anti-Russia sanctions on the sale and transfer of technologies for Arctic, deep-sea offshore exploration. 

We also recall US statements regarding its negative attitude toward Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic. 

Wide discussions on the prospects for Arctic development even touch aspects that may be implemented only in distant future. For example, in the fall of 2025 Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) declared that work on Feasibility Study for Russian-American Tunnel under the Bering Strait was already underway.

In turn, the Russian president has outlined in March 27, 2025 Russia’s primary goals in the Arctic. These include:

– to prevent violations of Russia’s sovereignty;

– to ensure the region’s long-term socioeconomic development;

– improvement of life quality for Russian citizens in the North;

– preservation of a unique natural environment.

Large logistics hubs and centers are planned to be constructed and implemented. For example, the complex of Arctic railways in different sub-polar regions. Thus, these regions will get access to the Arctic ports, and it will allow to decrease the load on Trans-Siberian railway and make easier connections with Asia-Pacific region. 

He author further highlights the main features of covering Arctic problems in mass-media of interested countries. . For example, in Russia, topics of Arctic infrastructure, technological, and economic development, as well as mineral extraction, are popular. In Norway – international politics and militarization. In Sweden, Iceland, and the United States – climate changes. In Denmark –  international politics (after the US proposal to buy Greenland). In Canada – scientific projects and tourism. 

In all information reports about the Arctic Russia is regularly mentioned [17]. Foreign media writes about Russia’s actions in the region.  In Sweden, Norway, and even China, a third of publications about the Arctic are somehow related to Russia [12]. In Denmark, this figure is 30%, while in Iceland and Finland, the figures are 24% and 23%, respectively. At the same time, in the United States and Canada Russia is mentioned only in 16-17% Arctic materials. 

 83% of publications mentioning Russia are neutral, 10% are positive, and 7% are negative. 

The worst coverage of Russia comes from media in the United States and Sweden. This is not surprising, as Russia claims to be the owner of 53% of the Arctic Ocean’s coastline (over 24,000 kilometers long) and approximately 40% of the Arctic’s surface area (4.8 million square kilometers). This situation, according to Russian adversaries, provides reasons to attack her. 

In terms of topic and context all materials in mass-media and public statements come down to two theories. 

The Arctic is a territory of dialogue and peaceful cooperation;

The Arctic is an area for collision of geopolitical interests

In fact, the most of assessments of regional situation is within the above mentioned limits. 

It’s interesting to note that the claims of some countries to the Arctic, declared in mass-media, sometimes involve a distinct propaganda contain. For example, India (geographically distant from the Arctic) has developed the so-called “three poles” concept—the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the Pamirs (mountains to the North of India)—as the ideological basis for its Arctic claims [2]. The experts suppose that such rather “bizarre” ideological construction has been aimed from the very beginning to the creation of geopolitical counterweight to China (India’s traditional adversary in global politics). 

Speaking in general, public discussions in different countries about the Arctic issues currently often resemble PR campaigns, since the real discussion is going on probable benefits and advantages. All aspects of the problem—climate, economic, geopolitical, military—are based on ideas that may be confirmed, but they also may be denied in the future. 

Prospects for Russian Arctic cooperation with Asian partners

Today, since Russia for a long time opposes the hostile actions from the global West, there appear certain opportunities for cooperation in Arctic projects with Asian partners, such as India, China, the Republic of Korea, Vietnam, North Korea, Laos, Singapore etc. 

According to the author, the attention of distant Asian states to the Arctic reflects their desire to prove independent status and to declare for the future the ambitions of regional or global significance.

For example, it is believed that one of characteristic features of a global power is the ability to project state power (not always destructive) anywhere in the world. This is especially evident during regional conflicts, development of new, hard-to-reach areas, and during natural or man-made disasters. In polar regions with extreme environmental and climate conditions  only technologically advanced countries are capable to solve complex economic and logistical problems. Based on this, the countries, who have become on the same level with sub-polar states, are proud of their achievements in recent years and strive for more valuable successes. 

Having analyzed the situation, we make the conclusion that involvement of foreign partners (distant from the Arctic) to development projects could significantly enhance economic and political interaction with them, create conditions for formation of new inter-state and inter-regional cooperation ties. Despite the limited polar experience, Asian countries can contribute a lot of valuable things. The lack of opportunities for non-Arctic states to present their views on multilateral level could lead to their attempts to take their actions in the Arctic on the basis of  cooperation with single sub-polar countries [1].

Now it’s time to consider the official positions and mass-media publications of Asian countries about the Arctic and identify areas of interest in which fruitful cooperation with Russia may be realized in near future. 

Firstly, the development of Arctic sea routes, which become available due to climate changes. China, Japan, and South Korea consider the Northern Sea Route as attractive alternative, short and fast trade route for cargo transportation between Asia and Europe. Provided there are no political obstacles or domestic economic difficulties, these countries could become investment partners in the expansion of logistics infrastructure in the Russian North (including the construction of icebreakers and floating oil and gas extraction facilities).

Secondly, scientific researches on climate changes and Arctic ecology also represent an important field for cooperation. Asian countries with rich experience in environmental technologies can offer their knowledge and resources for joint projects with Russian institutions.  

Thirdly, energy cooperation is also a significant field. Russia possesses vast  hydrocarbon reserves in the Arctic, essential for the economies of Asian countries.

In addition to this, security issues should be considered. Increasing geopolitical activity in polar regions the region makes necessary to ensure the stability and security of sea routes. 

Focusing on these areas in the Russian Arctic and media coverage aimed at the Asian audience, as well as the progress and results of development, could open up a new opportunities to work with Asian partners, no matter what their attitude towards Russia is.

Medium-term predictions and development scenarios (up to 2030)

Forecasts and scenarios for events and processes are influenced by a vast number of diverse factors.

For example, economic factors include: competition in global markets; trends in global logistics; desire to use the NSR as an international transcontinental transport corridor for shipping;  development of natural resources on the Arctic sea bottom shelf [18].

Political and military-strategic factors include: based on political antagonism reluctance of Western sub-Arctic countries to reach the understanding with Russia on Arctic issues. This position also negatively impacts the attitude toward these issues from other countries that have no direct access to the Arctic.

In view of above mentioned a rather tense (with elements of information wars and PR campaigns) general agenda regarding the Arctic will be continued in near future by foreign mass-media. Moreover, we can expect that “information wars over the Arctic” will only intensify. To win such wars requires to be flexible, think strategically, engage in continuous dialogue and seek ways to bilateral cooperation.

We suppose that in an upcoming period international mass-media will be covering polar issues in following aspects.

The optimistic scenario  – rapid development of the Arctic, provided there are no serious political, economic, cultural, informational, or military conflicts between interested actors. In this scenario, Russia occupies a relatively strong position as one of the major Arctic powers, sets the media tone for covering Arctic items, and actively develops cooperation with its Asian partners.

The inertial (baseline) scenario – the situation in the modern Arctic remains stable and steady. It is shaped not by actual events and circumstances, but by ideological and conceptual motives. International actors try to express their claims to influence by any means and  to challenge or break the positions of their opponents. We may say that this scenario assumes not only the continuation of the current situation (with information conflicts), but also its intensification. This will occur due to the increasing number of states which claim for influence in the Arctic and participation in Arctic projects. As a result, we will see how these countries actively participate in the informational and ideological “battle for the Arctic.”

Pessimistic scenario: escalating interstate confrontation between key participants in Arctic processes leads to their coverage in mass-media as events in the region of constant conflicts. Therefore, the predictions become unfavorable for most participants, and the negative information picture of ongoing processes begins to dominate when compared with the actual state of affairs.                          

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